@NateSilver538 @DanRosenheck Here's one from a few weeks ago calculating 5.7 for Wuhan: https://t.co/bGY9IrV0uc. I mostly don't get results like that when calculating lagging-R via deaths however (closer to ~3 at the high end).
@GordonRussell1 3/ On top of this, new CDC study estimates real RO is between roughly 4 and 9 persons. This would mean virus spreads about 2X faster than previously thought. https://t.co/2DcwU3kz2y ...
@CivilizedDebate @ChrisLu44 So unmitigated risk (no physical distancing) for 7 people is 42,118 infected All these numbers just highlight, that we need to get back to a place where conventional track and trace can break MOST chains before they spread on.
@CivilizedDebate @ChrisLu44 Hard to say how many. Really depends on how much physical contact each of these 7 had. And how many physical contacts each of the contacts had... WITHOUT precautions one person in an infection chain 5 layers deep w/ r0=5.7 res
RT @larrybrilliant: Here’s paper suggesting COVID19 r0 is really 5.7 not 2.2. This upends our hope that “merely” vaccinating or infecting…
@IenaRidens13 1/ la stima della #CDC https://t.co/C5qrbPsDBc con intervallo fiduciario 95% è 3,8 - 8,9 nelle fasi iniziali quando non c'è nessuna misura di contenimento https://t.co/r06T6zUbUL (preliminare lo studio sarà disponibile a Luglio)
RT @whaleforall: @takavet1 日本ではあまり話題になっていませんが、4月にアメリカにコロナが感染してからアメリカのCDCが計算した結果、コロナウイルスのR0は5.7になると発表がありました。 WHOが発表した1.4-2.5の2倍以上です。 https:/…
RT @whaleforall: @takavet1 日本ではあまり話題になっていませんが、4月にアメリカにコロナが感染してからアメリカのCDCが計算した結果、コロナウイルスのR0は5.7になると発表がありました。 WHOが発表した1.4-2.5の2倍以上です。 https:/…
RT @whaleforall: @takavet1 日本ではあまり話題になっていませんが、4月にアメリカにコロナが感染してからアメリカのCDCが計算した結果、コロナウイルスのR0は5.7になると発表がありました。 WHOが発表した1.4-2.5の2倍以上です。 https:/…
RT @whaleforall: @takavet1 日本ではあまり話題になっていませんが、4月にアメリカにコロナが感染してからアメリカのCDCが計算した結果、コロナウイルスのR0は5.7になると発表がありました。 WHOが発表した1.4-2.5の2倍以上です。 https:/…
@takavet1 日本ではあまり話題になっていませんが、4月にアメリカにコロナが感染してからアメリカのCDCが計算した結果、コロナウイルスのR0は5.7になると発表がありました。 WHOが発表した1.4-2.5の2倍以上です。 https://t.co/xFHcWW1wg9
@vishalgulati_ https://t.co/FgnYuER0rc Pre Print but worrying - connected to the new findings on mutations and higher fatality strains? Have not read this thoroughly but skimmed and seemed not good news https://t.co/egVqjlV7J6
@IenaRidens13 lo studio della #CDC è provvisorio https://t.co/r06T6zCAwb che verrà pubblicato il definitivo nel Luglio'20 e si riferisce alla diffusione del #Coronavirus SENZA provvedimenti e si passa dal (2.2 - 2.7) previsto e arginabile a sopra 5 (3.8 -
@forgues_michel @AndreDrouin @LP_LaPresse Fucking hell! Ça te prend un dessin? Kin: https://t.co/khT5AbG8YT https://t.co/zjEB7XQBWz
RT @maiamajumder: So, a new #COVID19 paper [https://t.co/gOCkSTC9mi] recently estimated a median R_0 of 5.7 based off of data from Wuhan.…
@ChristlVdP @ProfHGoossens @me2_of3 Groepsimmuniteit zndr vaccin?? Antibody “titer” value in 1/3 patients < 500,a level that might be too low to provide protection https://t.co/Dx4cwJCZj1 CDC: median R0 = 5.7! At R0 = 5.7, >82%(!) of the population
@ShekharGupta Hard to calculate R0 (as u rightly mention looking at cases with similar clinical characteristics) given India's pop. https://t.co/9Er9uUJQSa R0 nos. globally r all over the place. Thanks for putting facts in simple terms.
RT @giomasmic: @antonioripa mi ero dimenticato di ringraziarti per aver postato questo studio della #CDC https://t.co/r06T6zUbUL che è stat…
@WeAreSoFracked @Castantine @sltax @mattyglesias The CDC has a R0 at 5.7 so that is the issue. Very big range. https://t.co/MkvXSasg5m
Antibody “titer” value in 1/3 of patients was less than 500, a level that might be too low to provide protection https://t.co/Dx4cwJCZj1 We calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 At R0 = 5.7, >82% of the population has to be immune to achieve herd immunit
RT @vaTCFJOUy5yDG0i: 新型コロナウイルスは、なぜ爆発的な感染拡大するのでしょうか? 最新の論文ではひとりの感染者が5.7人に感染させる、と計算しています。感染者が直接感染させる平均人数を「基本再生産数Ro [アールノート]」と言います。麻しんは12、天然痘…
@TomJensen1966 Det afhænger blandt andet af det reelle reproduktionstal. Og selvfølgelig i hvilken grad de smittede udvikler immunitet. https://t.co/Yd5NT3kFAi
@rosshamptonpon1 @jowilliams293 I originally said between each infected person is spreading to between 4-9 people. The actual R rate is 3.8-8.9. Can you show me how I’m wrong??? Here ⬇️ is my source for the 3.8-8.9 number I mentioned earlier. https://
@rickyteachey @asymmetricinfo Yup, there's a reason it's called the NOVEL coronavirus - because it's not something anyone in our population has been exposed to before. Thus we had a disease no one was immune to with an r-naught now thought to be 5.7 accord
@faitsalternati1 @JeanFeyneck @Conflits_FR A noter aussi que le R0 a été revu à 5.7 en Chine (au début de l'épidémie) donc peut être plus élevé https://t.co/05Jb4Sk4FP
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
RT @ajsta: @GidMK You don't think the R0 = 5.7 for early Wihan (95%CI 3.8 - 8.9) holds much weight? https://t.co/6RCkXgFaxg
@GidMK You don't think the R0 = 5.7 for early Wihan (95%CI 3.8 - 8.9) holds much weight? https://t.co/6RCkXgFaxg
@shaunroberts131 @thepaulwilliams @tomchick85 Do you know how many people worldwide just one player infect by refusing to vaccinate? https://t.co/wIyiEvoRov
@eligio68 @lucianocapone @bad_scientists @RobertoBurioni @antonioripa ehm ho sbagliato link quello della #CDC è https://t.co/r06T6zUbUL mentre @antoripa è quello che lo ha postato per primo, illuminandomi su molte cose
@antonioripa mi ero dimenticato di ringraziarti per aver postato questo studio della #CDC https://t.co/r06T6zUbUL che è stato per me illuminante e spiega come mai l'immenso #Fauci sia passato da "no problem" a "100000 - 240000 death"
People don't realize the risk increase exponentially with the median R0 of 5.7 Is really not the time for political narrative. https://t.co/fYeM1GhHZW
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
@KawasakiKR11 Also, from Los Alamos braniacs with mad math skillz: https://t.co/EKODgoPU6J
RT @NakEDalterego: CoVid19 has an Ro of 5.7. 😱 Ro 5.7 = 1 person with CoVid infects 5.7 other people. Good luck to those advocating the…
... at R ~5.7 you get over 36,200,000.
@pdazan Afirmaciones así de seguras, requeriren evidencia muy clara, espero la puedan compartir. Todo se está investigando aún, la CDC dice que el R0 puede ser más alto de lo que se creía, hasta 5,7. https://t.co/S3VcpR6cGx
@PoolPositionRun @LucPicat @JustinWolfers New R-naught study from CDC is here: https://t.co/jDdJDJuOHG "Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)." That's up from initial estimates in low to mid 2 ra
RT @MatthewMarkert: The @CDCgov is finally reporting what anyone with a calculator and the @JohnsHopkinsSPH #COVIDー19 map could already see…
@hayes_curtis @stevelackmeyer @latimes Even if mortality rates are exactly the same as flu, the much higher R0, possilby as high as 5.7 per this new CDC reanalysis, make this disease worse for public health. https://t.co/wEatfhreNv
@JeremyG222 @MrSquishyC0okie @goodnightdevi1 @ToddJCefaratti @Dreamf0x The research i did use for that statement was a little over a month ago. Looked again just now at another one released April 7th and they have an even higher estimation. https://t.co/kW
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - PubMed @AlboMP @albericie @AOC @billbowtell https://t.co/FOni2V9nwg
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
@EstebanOrtizMD @dr_edurivas @Stepharellano86 @Salud_Ec @DrJuanCZevallos "Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9) We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early stron
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
RT @trishgreenhalgh: I don't want to worry anyone but the R0 of COVID-19 isn't 2.5, it's closer to 5.7. MT @birdxi1988 @yaneerbaryam ht…
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7
Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC https://t.co/aj9B3xytDs via @CDCgov
@cyphenator @HawleyMO Respectfully, epidemiology shows each infected person infects about three others, who each infect three more, and so on. That's only possible to trace in places like SK and Germany, where testing is wide and broad-based. https://t.co/
RT @ThomasVConti: No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma…
No entanto, é preciso que percentual muito grande da população seja infectado para que essa imunidade seja relevante. Uma aproximação é a fórmula 1-1/R0. No caso do Covid, isso significa entre 55% e 82% da população total. Fontes https://t.co/uPUnRA6iVO,
Vééél harder #COVID19 - bepaald klinisch beeld, het nieuwste artikel - @MarietFeltkamp https://t.co/bXoqemDt0D
Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC https://t.co/fdNlvkAB6i vía @CDCgov
@AdamJKucharski The median R0 is 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9) in this cdc study https://t.co/uSP9LvQzPv
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
RT @larrybrilliant: Here’s paper suggesting COVID19 r0 is really 5.7 not 2.2. This upends our hope that “merely” vaccinating or infecting…
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
RT @DrEricDing: 🚨New higher R0 from CDC reanalysis... it’s a 5.7!🚨(95% Confidence Interval: 3.8–8.9). Wowzers. This much higher #SARSCoV2 R…
@colgrove11 10 layers 5.7 = 36,203,333 2.8 = 29,620 1.4 = 29 High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 https://t.co/P44WM8VEVN
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
@CT_Bergstrom @andreashandel Thank you for this thread. If the estimated R0 in this paper is accurate, I think the situation becomes even worse. https://t.co/OxXJEmmZFM
Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC https://t.co/mbsN5zBNSd via @CDCgov
RT @jlz0z: @SamMaayan @stumpygutbucket @lanacallu6 @HackneyAbbott CDC raising the R0 to ~5.7 link https://t.co/4SwfBWs4Cd
@SamMaayan @stumpygutbucket @lanacallu6 @HackneyAbbott CDC raising the R0 to ~5.7 link https://t.co/4SwfBWs4Cd
@CT_Bergstrom And with some estimates of R0 as high as 5.7 would require over 80% of population to be infected to achieve this? #COVID19 https://t.co/4Ecbve9Fri
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC [… median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)] https://t.co/jhSaNh8vlZ
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
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RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
RT @miyatamitsuru: 武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rap…
武漢の新型コロナウイルス感染の調査レポート(CDC、EID Journal20年7月号)。再生産数=5.7は驚異的な数字。日本では2.5を想定して対策中 Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - https://t.co/4vVsyHMFkp @CDCgovさんから
The original article is here: https://t.co/Kh69l7PFwo
RT @larrybrilliant: Here’s paper suggesting COVID19 r0 is really 5.7 not 2.2. This upends our hope that “merely” vaccinating or infecting…
RT @larrybrilliant: Here’s paper suggesting COVID19 r0 is really 5.7 not 2.2. This upends our hope that “merely” vaccinating or infecting…
RT @larrybrilliant: Here’s paper suggesting COVID19 r0 is really 5.7 not 2.2. This upends our hope that “merely” vaccinating or infecting…
RT @larrybrilliant: Here’s paper suggesting COVID19 r0 is really 5.7 not 2.2. This upends our hope that “merely” vaccinating or infecting…
RT @larrybrilliant: Highlighting relationship between an r0 near 5.7 leading to need to either vaccinate or see infected a total of nearly…
@KristianGunder Det har endret seg litt etterhvert etter det jeg forstår, Imperial har økt til 3 bl a. Men r0 i en populasjon kan godt være 2.5 i Stockholm og 5.7 i Wuhan under kinesisk nyttår. Her er studien https://t.co/s3NCbxpkZa
@extrablatt Ich habe übrigens kürzlich auch wieder einen Artikel vor mir gehabt, der von einer wesentlich höheren Basisreproduktionszahl ausgeht als das RKI. Bin echt gespannt, was sich als richtig erweist. https://t.co/mTyJIAiEWE
RT @NakEDalterego: CoVid19 has an Ro of 5.7. 😱 Ro 5.7 = 1 person with CoVid infects 5.7 other people. Good luck to those advocating the…