Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation

Andrew J. Challinor, Frank Ewert, Steve Arnold, Elisabeth Simelton, Evan Fraser

Assessments of the relationships between crop productivity and climate change rely upon a combination of modelling and measurement. As part of this review, this relationship is discussed in the context of crop and climate simulation. Methods for linking these two types of models are reviewed, with a primary focus on large-area crop modelling techniques. Recent progress in simulating the impacts of climate change on crops is presented, and the application of these methods to the exploration of adaptation options is discussed. Specific advances include ensemble simulations and improved understanding of biophysical processes. Finally, the challenges associated with impacts and adaptation research are discussed. It is argued that the generation of knowledge for policy and adaptation should be based not only on syntheses of published studies, but also on a more synergistic and holistic research framework that includes: (i) reliable quantification of uncertainty; (ii) techniques for combining diverse modelling approaches and observations that focus on fundamental processes; and (iii) judicious choice and calibration of models, including simulation at appropriate levels of complexity that accounts for the principal drivers of crop productivity, which may well include both biophysical and socio-economic factors. It is argued that such a framework will lead to reliable methods for linking simulation to real-world adaptation options, thus making practical use of the huge global effort to understand and predict climate change.