Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Psychosis: Predictive Utility of Support Vector Machine using Structural and Functional MRI Data

Isabel Valli, Andre F. Marquand, Andrea Mechelli, Marie Raffin, Paul Allen, Marc L. Seal, Philip McGuire

The identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis is entirely based on clinical assessment, associated with limited predictive potential. There is, therefore, increasing interest in the development of biological markers that could be used in clinical practice for this purpose. We studied 25 individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis and 25 healthy controls using structural MRI, and functional MRI in conjunction with a verbal memory task. Data were analyzed using a standard univariate analysis, and with support vector machine (SVM), a multivariate pattern recognition technique that enables statistical inferences to be made at the level of the individual, yielding results with high translational potential. The application of SVM to structural MRI data permitted the identification of individuals at high risk of psychosis with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 76%, resulting in an accuracy of 72% (p < 0.001). Univariate volumetric between-group differences did not reach statistical significance. By contrast, the univariate fMRI analysis identified between-group differences (p < 0.05 corrected), while the application of SVM to the same data did not. Since SVM is well suited at identifying the pattern of abnormality that distinguishes two groups, whereas univariate methods are more likely to identify regions that individually are most different between two groups, our results suggest the presence of focal functional abnormalities in the context of a diffuse pattern of structural abnormalities in individuals at high clinical risk of psychosis.