Communicating uncertainty in intelligence forecasts using verbal expressions of probability and confidence

Overview of attention for article published in Intelligence and National Security, September 2024

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💯 confidence statements in Intel analysis are meaningless. https://t.co/e8sdLsIMw4

24 Sep 2024

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"The results indicated that participants used expressions of confidence to interpret the likelihood of events and that the inclusion of expressions of confidence did not improve interpretations of forecasts." https://t.co/03b2D7naRI

24 Sep 2024

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RT @alexrblackwell: “This study examined how people interpret intelligence forecasts made with [verbal] expressions [of both probability an…

22 Sep 2024

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RT @alexrblackwell: “This study examined how people interpret intelligence forecasts made with [verbal] expressions [of both probability an…

20 Sep 2024

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